国债的经济效应与李嘉图等价--基于战后日本数据的实证检验

Economic Effects of the Government Bonds and Ricardian Equivalence——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Post-war Japanese Data

关于国债经济效应的理论研究中,李嘉图等价定理处于核心地位并产生了深远的影响。如果李嘉图等价定理成立,那么通过发行国债所实施的积极财政政策将是无效的;反之将是有效的。通过综合运用间接和直接检验对李嘉图等价定理进行实证分析可以验证:国债政策的运用对战后日本经济的发展起到了积极影响。此外,通过对影响日本私人消费的相关因素(家庭可支配收入、政府消费和国债)运用可变参数状态空间模型进行估计,从而分析了各影响因素对消费弹性的动态变化。

In the research of the economic effects of national debts,the Ricardo equivalence proposition（REP） is definitely the core issue and has been brought far-reaching impacts on the research.The REP has a very important policy implication,that is,the government debts failed to bring any changes of the aggregate social demands,and hence no changes to the national income either.To say it more clearly,if the REP holds,then the expansionary fiscal policies taken through issuing national debts will be invalid,otherwise,they will be valid.This paper will comprehensively use both the direct method by testing the conclusion of REP and indirect method through Euler equation approach by testing the theoretical requirements of REP.Finally the paper comes to the conclusion that the REP is valid in post-war Japanese economy.