通径分析在大豆菌核病流行中的应用

Application of Path Analysis in Soybean Sclerotinia Sclerotiorum Prevalence

为明确大豆菌核病发生发展中各个时期气象因子的重要性及相关性,对黑龙江省大豆主产区中9个地点的大豆田菌核病病情指数进行调查,收集各地6～8月的平均降水量、平均日照时数和平均气温,在此基础上采用多元回归分析的方法建立回归方程,然后利用通径分析确定影响菌核病发生的主要气象因子。结果表明:8月份平均降水量对大豆菌核病病情指数的影响最为严重,其次为7月份平均日照时数和8月份平均温度;7月份平均日照时数是通过与8月份平均降水量相互作用对大豆菌核病的病情指数产生较大影响。其它因子的直接间接通径系数都很低,对菌核病病情指数的影响不大。因此,在7月份的平均日照时数少,8月份平均降雨量大,并且8月份平均温度适宜的情况下菌核病将发生流行。

The occurrence and development of soybean Sclerotinia sclerotiorum is closely related with meteorological factors in soybean growth stage.In this research,the major influenced meteorological factor in soybean Sclerotinia sclerotiorum occurrence were ascertained through regression and path analysis based on disease indexes of nine soybean major production locations in Heilongjiang province and meteorological factors including average rainfall,sunshine hours and temperature from June to August.Disease index of soybean Sclerotinia sclerotiorum was most affected by the average precipitation in August among all tested meteorological factors.Mean sunshine hours in July combined with average temperature of August severely influenced disease index of soybean Sclerotinia sclerotiorum.The direct or indirect path indexes of other factors were too low to affect disease occurrence.Soybean Sclerotinia sclerotiorum would outbreak under the circumstances of less sunshine hours in July,more rainfall and appropriate temperature in August.