交通冲突技术在水上交通领域的运用

Traffic Conflict Technique′s Application to Waterway Traffic Area

目前,我国通过对水上交通事故的统计来分析评价水上交通安全状况.基于事故统计的分析方法普遍存在"小样本、长周期、大区域、低信度"的缺陷,据此制定改善交通的措施表现出一定的不适应性.在交通安全评价方面,交通冲突技术以"大样本、快速、定量、非事故"等特点而明显优于传统的事故统计评价方法.但目前我国学者对交通冲突技术的研究极少涉及水上交通领域.把交通冲突技术引入到水上交通安全领域是一种进行水域交通安全定量分析与评价的新思路,能够大大缩短水上交通安全评价的周期并提高评价的可信度.

Water traffic safety is a widespread concern.At present,navigational safety analysis is based on accident statistics.Traditional accident statistical analysis has drawbacks of little sample,long cycle,large area,low reliability.A series of improvement measures to improve navigational safety formulated by those present certain inadaptability.In the aspect of traffic safety assessment,traffic conflict technique is superior to the traditional accident statistics evaluation method because of its characteristic of large sample,short cycle,quantification and non-accident.Now the researchers in our country are studying traffic conflict technique,but there is little application in water transportation.That traffic conflict technique is utilized in water transportation supplies a new method for quantitative evaluation of water traffic safety.It cuts short the cycle of evaluation of water traffic safety and improve the credibility of the evaluation greatly.