截断帕雷托分布模型在油气资源预测中的应用

APPLICATION OF TSP DISTRIBUTION MODEL TO OIL AND GAS RESOURCE FORECAST

本文在Houghton总结出的不同勘探阶段七种储量分布曲线类型基础上 ,根据截断帕雷托分布模型 ,对松辽盆地北部未发现气田储量规模分布和总储量进行了预测 ,并且又应用分形方法预测了未发现气田总储量。结果表明 ,截断帕雷托分布模型与分形方法预测的未发现气田储量大小相吻合 ,验证了TSP分布模型是预测油气田储量的可靠方法。最后得出以下主要结论 :TSP分布模型预测油气资源分布受具体盆地地质条件影响较小 ,具有推广价值 ;TSP分布模型与其它资源评价方法相比 ,预测的油气储量还不很完善。

On the basis of 7 reserve distribution curves in different exploration stages generalized by Houghton,according to TSP distribution model the scale distribution and quantum of the reserves in the undiscovered gas fields in the north part of Songliao Basin is forecasted and the total reserves in the undiscovered gas fields is also predicted by use of the fractal method.The calculated results show that the reserves in the undiscovered gas fields forecasted by the TSP distribution model are accordant with those forecasted by the fractal method,which verifies that the TSP distribution model is a reliable method of predicting the reserves in oil and gas fields.Finally,it is concluded that the distribution of oil and gas resources forecasted by the TSP distribution model is less affected by the basin′s geological conditions,so it is worth popularizing and the method of predicting oil and gas reserves by TSP distribution model is not very perfect in comparison with the other resource evaluation methods.