基于蒙特卡洛模拟的输电线路工程造价风险管理研究

Risk Management Research of Transmission Line Construction Cost Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

对影响输电线路工程造价的因素进行风险识别,提出了基于蒙特卡洛模拟的输电线路工程造价风险管理模型。对某220kV输电线路进行实证研究,利用历史数据与专家调查的方法对工程造价进行风险分析,确定概率分布,用计算机进行多次模拟仿真计算、灵敏度分析,求得输电线路工程总造价的概率分布、期望值、相关性系数等数据特征值,验证了模型的可行性。

This paper firstly discusses the risk identification of the influencing factors of transmission line construction cost,and then proposes the transmission line construction cost risk management model based on Monte Carlo simulation.In the case study of a 220 kV transmission line project,historical data and Delphi method were used to conduct risk analysis of the project cost,and determine the probability distribution;multiple computer simulation calculation and sensitivity analysis were implemented;the numerical characteristics of total cost probability distribution,expectation value and correlation coefficient are generalized,which verify the feasibility of the proposed model.