生态-经济系统对冰冻圈变化的适应能力评价——以玉龙雪山地区为例

Adaptive Capacity Evaluation of Ecological-Economic System to Cryospheric Change——A Case Study in the Mount Yulong

以玉龙雪山地区为例,基于关联性、全面性与合理性、可操作性原则,结合玉龙雪山地区冰冻圈变化的特点与主要影响,从生态、水资源、经济与社会系统4个方面遴选了20个指标,构建了生态-经济系统对冰冻圈变化的适应能力评价体系,运用层次分析法和多目标线性加权函数法建立了冰冻圈变化适应能力指数模型,对玉龙雪山地区冰冻圈变化适应能力进行了综合评价.结果表明:就子系统而言,1980-2008年除水资源系统的适应能力呈下降态势外,生态、经济与社会系统对冰冻圈变化的适应能力均呈上升趋势.水资源总量减少是水资源系统适应能力降低的主要影响因素.玉龙雪山地区冰冻圈变化的综合适应能力增强,经济系统对综合适应能力的贡献达到37%,居首位,其次为社会系统,为29%.旅游业发展驱动下的生态环境保护,地区经济实力增强,交通设施建设,居民收入增加共同助推了该地区综合适应能力的提升.

In this paper,the Mount Yulong is taken as an example.Based on the relevance,comprehensiveness,rationality and operability,considering local cryospheric change features and the main influence factors,twenty indexes are chosen from the four systems： ecology,water resources,and economy and society system.To comprehensively evaluate the adaptive capacity to cryospheric change,an adaptive capacity evaluation system of ecological-economic system to cryospheric change and an adaptive capacity index model are established,which employ analytic hierarchy process（AHP） and multi-objective linear weigh-adding function method.It is found that water resources system adaptive capacity reduced between 1980 and 2008,owing to the decrease of total water resources,while the others systems had a rising tendency.Comprehensive adaptive capacity to cryospheric change has enhanced,because of the eco-environmental protection,development of economy,construction of transportation and increase of residents＇ income driven by tourism.The primary contribution to the enhancement is economy system,accounting for 37%,and the second is society system,accounting for 29%.