抗艾滋病药物的评价与预测模型

The evaluation and prediction model of the effect of AIDS therapy

第一问中对CD4数量和HIV浓度随周期变化分别建立线性模型和二次模型,由数据确立中度患者CD4随时间变化模型为:C(T)=0.0496T+3.0659,HIV随时间变化为:H(T)=0.0044T2-0.2317T+4.2899.确定最佳治疗终止时间为:轻度患者28.90周,中度患者31.97周,重度患者为40.86周,平均最佳终止治疗时间33.91周.第二问中得出疗法4效果最好,疗法3次之,疗法1最差.然后通过建立了回归分析模型,对最优疗法进行预测,得到最佳终止治疗时间为25.53周.第三问在第二问的基础上增加了治疗费用对治疗效果的影响,计算得出:疗法3为最优,疗法1次之,疗法2最差.用疗法3的数据进行作图分析得到疗法3的最佳治疗终止时间为40周.

In first section, we set up linear and quadratic model for density of CD4 and HIV with time. Amount of CD4 of middle sufferer with time satisfy： C（T） = 0.0496T ＋ 3.0659 , Amount of HIV： H（T） = 0.0044T^2 - 0.2317T ＋ 4.2899. Stopping therapy best time： early, middle and late sufferer are： 28.8th week, 31.97th week and 40.8th week. Average best stopping time is 33.91th week. In second section, the result show that treatment 4 is best one, after treatment 3; treatment 1 is bad. We set up regress model for treatment 4, and predict best stopping time： 25.53th week. Based on the second section, the third section add the influence of cost to effect of treatment. By fuzz judge matrix, show that treatment 3 is the best one, after treatment 1; treatment 2 is bad. Through the graphical analysis, stopping therapy best time for treatment 3 is 40th week.