沿海港口自然灾害风险评价

Natural Disaster Risk Assessment of Coastal Ports in China

以多灾种复合为背景,选取沿海城市中重要的基础设施——港口为研究区域,包括大连港、天津港、青岛港、上海港、宁波—舟山港、厦门港、深圳港、广州港,从危险性、暴露性和脆弱性等方面选取指标,探讨构建了沿海港口自然灾害风险评价指标体系与评估模型:评价结果为:沿海港口的灾害风险指数相差较大,风险值在空间上表现出长江三角洲沿岸>珠江三角洲沿岸>环渤海沿岸:评价结果可以为沿海港口防灾减灾提供理论依据。

Natural disaster risk assessment is a process or application ofa methodology for quantitatively analyzing and evaluating the possibility of different intensity disasters and the possible consequence of the disasters.On the background of multi-disasters,the eight ports,namely Dalian port,Tianjin port,Qingdao port,Shanghai port,Ningbo-Zhoushan port,Xiamen port,Shenzhen port,Guangzhou port,which are the important infrastructure in the coastal cities of China,are selected as the study area.Based on the natural and social chara cteristics of the study area,three factors have been selected as indices for a quantitative evaluation,including the hazard,the exposure and the vulnerabilit y.At last,this paper establishes natural disaster risk assessment index system and evaluation model of the coastal ports.The analysis result shows that the integrated risk of coastal ports in China presents spatial disparities evidently,which can be rank as Yangtze River DeltaPearl River Deltaannulus Bohai Sea.Qingdao Port,Shanghai Port and Ningbo-Zhoushan Port should protect themselves from the wind caused by typhoon.Xiamen Port and Shenzhen Port should pay attention to the typhoon wind and typhoon storm surge.Tianjin Port and Guangzhou Port should give attention to the typhoon storm surge,because that both of them are seriously affected by the storm surge.The exposure of container and goods is high in Tianjin,Shanghai,Qingdao,Xiamen,Shenzhen and Guangzhou Port.When natural disaster is coming,they must move the container and goods in time.The goodsand the passengers highly exposed to the natural disaster in Dalian and Ningbo-Zhoushan Port.This must be concerned by related departments.At the same time,the disaster prevention facilities should be strengthened.When maintaining and expanding ports scale,administration departments should increase the number of anchorages and lighthouses to improve the ship＇s navigation according to relevant disaster prevention and mitigation requirements.The results which have important scientific value and practical significance,agrees with the reality.