基于模糊数学的石油化工装置HAZOP风险分析技术研究

Study on HAZOP risk analysis techniques in the petrochemical plant based on fuzzy mathematics

对传统的HAZOP分析中偏差原因发生可能性进行量化。对于有统计数据的,根据行业数据、公司经验及企业事故建立HAZOP风险分析统计数据库;对于没有统计数据的HAZOP分析偏差原因发生概率,通过专家主观评判,用模糊数理论将专家自然语言转换为模糊数,采用左右模糊排序法将模糊数转换为模糊失效概率值。研究了偏差后果严重程度的划分标准,并根据偏差原因概率和偏差后果严重程度确定风险等级,利用风险矩阵得出偏差风险的大小。从而把HAZOP分析方法从定性改进为半定量的分析方法。据此对石油化工装置进行了HAZOP风险分析。

This paper intends to give a detailed study over the feasibility of the quantitative method when it is used for analyzing the petrochemical process systems.As is known,in the HAZOP risk analysis,probabilities of the basic events were treated as precise values,which are not likely to reflect the real situation of the system because of ambiguity and imprecision with regard to some basic events.In order to overcome this disadvantage,we have proposed a new method which is aimed at combining the expert elicitation with fuzzy set theories for evaluating the probability of the events.For this purpose,we have established an accident statistics database of HAZOP risk analysis,which can be used to analyze and evaluate the experience of a company or corporate and evaluate the risk it may get involved with.The so-called HAZOP Risk Analysis Techniques can help a company or a corporation to confirm the influence weight of experts from different specialties,because the probability of deviation in HAZOP experts＇ natural languages can be turned into the corresponding fuzzy numerical simulation models.What is more,since these fuzzy numerals embodying the expert opinions can then be transformed into fuzzy possibility deductions by using left and right fuzzy preference related methods in hoping to amend the experts＇ opinions.By setting up different fuzzy analytic hierarchical process models and using the fuzzy complementary evaluation matrix,it is possible to determine and weigh the experts＇ assessments.Furthermore,we have also studied the criteria for the severity of the deviation consequences.Based on the probability analysis of the deviation tendencies and the severity of the deviation consequences,it would be possible to produce the final risk level assessment by using the risk matrix.And,accordingly the HAZOP risk analysis based on fuzzy numerals can be successfully applied to the production control departments of the petrochemical plant so as to promote the further developments of the risk analysis techniques in such plants.