我国“双反”措施的产业救济效果与福利效应——基于可计算局部均衡COMPAS模型的研究

Industry Remedy and Welfare Effects of China's Anti-dumping and Countervailing Measures: A Research Based on COMPAS Model

本文利用可计算局部均衡COMPAS模型,基于2005～2009年我国鸡肉产品生产与进口的有关数据,就我国对美国白羽肉鸡产品反倾销、反补贴税的产业救济效果、福利效应等进行了实证模拟。模拟结果表明:在未来5年里,我国对美国白羽肉鸡产品的反倾销、反补贴税将使我国白羽肉鸡行业的产量和就业增加近26%,销售收入增加38.4%;但是,"双反"措施也将导致我国市场鸡肉价格大约上涨9.8%,消费量下降2.8%,消费者福利损失近10亿美元。

By using the data of production and trade of chicken products of China from 2005 to 2009 and Commercial Policy Analysis System（COMPAS） model,this paper analyses how China＇s anti-dumping and countervailing measures against white feather chicken products from USA would affect the production,employment and welfare at the industry level.The results of simulation show that： in the next 5 years,the implementation of anti-dumping and countervailing duties will make China＇s white feather chicken industry＇s output and employment increase by nearly 26%,sales revenue increase by 38.4%;However,the measures will also raise the chicken prices in China＇s market by 9.8%,and the consumption will fall by 2.8%,consumer welfare will lose by nearly 10 billion U.S.dollars.Based on the research conclusions,the paper concludes some policy recommendations.