基于序贯蒙特卡洛方法的风电并网系统调峰裕度评估

Peak-shaving Margin Evaluation Associated with Wind Power Integrated System Based on Sequential Monte-Carlo Method

在分析风电并网后系统调峰需求变化的基础上,运用可靠性理论,基于序贯蒙特卡洛方法,提出了风电并网系统调峰裕度评估方法。该方法计及常规机组的强迫停运概率和风电随机波动特性,充分利用序贯蒙特卡洛方法便于加入规则的特性,提出了调峰不足概率指标及其计算方法。利用所述方法对IEEE-RTS系统进行了调峰裕度评估,验证了该方法的可行性和有效性。

A peak-shaving margin evaluation method associated with wind power integrated system is developed.It is based on the analysis of peak-shaving demand changes of wind power integrated system,and sequential Monte-Carlo method,using reliability theory.Considering unit forced outage rate and random fluctuation of wind power,the proposed method makes full use of sequential Monte-Carlo method features of easy to add rules.Peak-shaving capacity insufficient probability index and its calculation method are proposed.Peak-shaving margin evaluation of IEEE-RTS system demonstrates that the proposed method is feasible and effective.