东莞市税收收入与经济增长关系的实证研究

An Empirical Study of Tax and Economic Growth in Dongguan

利用计量经济学方法分析了东莞近10年的经济数据,结果表明:经济增长是东莞税收增长的决定因素,但非经济增长因素对税收增长亦有重要的促进作用;东莞目前的宏观税负处于经济增长可承受范围内,未对经济增长造成阻碍;东莞税收弹性指标协调。在此基础上,提出了促进东莞税收持续增长的3点建议:壮大税源经济,提高税源质量;优化第三产业结构,开辟新兴税源;加强税收征管,强化税源控制。

This paper uses methods of econometrics to analyze economic data of Dongguans recent 10 years.The result shows that：economic growth is the determinant of revenue growth in Dongguan,but non-economic growth factors on tax growth also have stimulative effect;the macro tax of Dongguan may withstand within the range in economic growth;and the tax elasticity index is coordinate.On this basis,this paper puts forward three suggestions to promote the steady growth of revenue：growing tax sources economy to improve the quality of sources,optimizing structure of the third industry,and strengthening tax collection.