浙江省气候变化事实研究

RESEARCH ON CLIMATE CHANGES IN ZHEJIANG PROVINCE

为了区分不均一与局地气候的突变,采用功效不同的SNHT、Buishand、Pettitt三种均一性检验法对浙江省41个气象观测站1960—2007年的温度和降水的观测序列进行检验。通过对三种方法检验的站点数据做气候变化事实研究发现,近50年浙江省与全球呈现一致的气温年代际变化特征,0.19℃/(10 a)的平均气温倾向率比0.13℃/(10 a)的全球平均值高,略低于0.22℃/(10 a)的全国平均值。全省年平均降水量呈上升趋势,这与中国降水量总体下降的变化趋势相反,但与长江流域以南的变化趋势一致;强降水、高温热浪等极端天气事件频率增大,城市局地气候趋于"热干"化;≥10℃的初日提早10天左右,而终日推迟了近10天,在持续日数增加的同时,有效积温也相应增大。

In order to track down the inhomogeneities in station data records caused by station relocation or measuring technique changes,three homogeneity tests are applied to evaluate the daily station series（1960—2007） of surface air temperature and precipitation in Zhejiang province,and then using the useful station data,a detailed study has been undertaken of climate change features of Zhejiang province.The study reveals that annual mean temperature in Zhejiang presents a similar trend to the global one,and the warming rate,0.19 ℃/（10 a）,is higher than the global rate of 0.13 ℃/（10 a） and lower than 0.22 ℃/（10 a）,the rate for China.Annual average precipitation also presents an increasing trend,which is consistent with that of the south of the Yangtze River basin,but opposite to the general decreasing trend of China.The frequency of heavy rain and heat wave increases and local climate in the inner parts of cities presents a ＂dry heat＂ trend.The study also shows that the beginning of 10 ℃ effective accumulated temperature is nearly ten days earlier,and the ending is almost ten days later,than normal;meanwhile,the annual accumulated days and the effective accumulated temperature both present increasing trends.