引入央行干预的汇率决定混沌模型构建

Construction of Exchange Rate Determining Mode with Central Bank Interference

与股票、商品市场等相比,外汇市场上存在中央银行的干预,中央银行的干预对汇率变动和外汇市场的有效性有决定性的影响,因此汇率决定混沌模型应该引入央行干预。在基本的汇率决定混沌模型和扩展的汇率决定混沌模型基础上,对模型参数进行改造,建构了依据央行干预外汇市场的目标分类的"逆风向干预"和"目标干预"的汇率决定混沌模型,具有重要的现实指导意义。

Compared with stock and commercial markets,foreign exchange market is intervened by central bank,and the intervention from central bank has determining effects on exchange rate change and validity of foreign exchange market.Therefore,central bank＇s intervention should be introduced into exchange rate determining mode.This paper,based on basic exchange rate determining mode and extended exchange rate determining mode,modifies existing mode parameters and constructs ＂leaning against the wind intervention＂ exchange rate determining mode and ＂target intervention＂ exchange rate determining mode according to the objective classification of central bank＇s intervention,which is of significance for practice.