供求矛盾压制业绩改善的空间和持续性——造纸行业2012年第2季度展望

Supply-demand contradictor y will suppress performance improvement and its persistence——the prospect of the second quarter for 2012 paper industry

2012年第1季度，生产厂商在去年第4季度采购的低价位原料库存投入使用，纸价也已触底，文化纸消费旺季临近，价格在成本推动下小幅上涨。今年上半年行业业绩逐季改善的确定性较强。

Xun Chunzhen analyst from Great Wall Securities believed that the performance improvement would be with strong certainty in the first half of 2012 effected by low price inventory of raw materials, but in the medium to long term, the market trend mainly depends on the industrial supply-demand relationship. It will be a long run to go for China paper industry to solve the inbalance of supply-demand unless the policies, such as the elimination of backward production, the strict limits for new capacity and so on are released. Without any doubt, the overcapacity will effect the performance improvement and its persistence.