环渤海地区4～10天风速预报中相似预报法的应用

Application of Analog Forecast to 4-10 Day Wind Forecasting around Bohai Sea

依据逐步相似过滤法和最小相似离度原理,利用NCEP逐日再分析资料、T213数值预报产品和环渤海72站1958—2008年地面观测站风速资料,建立不同因子组合的相似过滤方案,制作环渤海72站4～10天每日4次、日最大风速预报。通过多个相似过滤方案预报准确率检验,确定"最佳"逐步相似过滤方案。经过2007—2008年预报检验表明:每日4次风速预报中,0～2级风速的预报效果最好,4～10天平均TS评分达到67%;日最大风速预报中,3～4级4～10天平均TS评分为54.1%,5级及以上的TS评分为17.1%。在风力不太强的情况下,该方法对于中期风速预报有一定的参考价值。

According to the principles of analog forecast,the step-by-step filter and the smallest degree of analogue deviation are applied to make 4-to-10-day wind forecast for the area around Bohai Sea based on the T213 numerical forecast products,NCEP reanalyzed daily data,and the wind speed data of 72 stations around Bohai Sea.Various forecast schemes for 4 to 10 days are established.Forecast results were tested to choose the optimal scheme,which is used to forecast wind speeds four times per day and the daily maximum wind speeds for 72 stations around Bohai sea from 2007 to 2008.The results show that the TS score for wind-scale 0 to 2 forecast is better in forecasting wind speeds four times per day,and the 4-to-10-day mean TS score is 67%;the 4-to-10-day mean TS score for wind scale 3 to 4 of maximum daily wind speed forecast is 54.1%;above wind scale 5,the 4-to-10-day mean TS score is 17.1%.The results also indicate that the analog method is of good capability in 4-to-10-day wind speed forecasting.