基于建筑物地表沉降数据的变形预测方法比较

The comparison of the deformation forecast methodsbased on the data of the ground surface subsidence of building

为了研究隧道周边建筑物地表的变形,本文根据京东方蒸汽管道工程隧道开挖过程中周边建筑物地表的沉降观测数据,利用二次指数平滑法和灰色系统法建立数学模型,分别对建筑物地表做变形预测,并对预测结果进行分析和对比,结果显示二次指数平滑法的预测精度更高。对于隧道周边建筑地表沉降的预测二次指数平滑法效果更好,比较符合实际变形曲线,相对来说是一种较好的变形预测方法,为隧道的开发过程中防止安全事故的发生、避免经济损失和人员伤亡提供一种参考方法。

For researching the deformation of the ground surface of the tunnel surrounding buildings,this article uses double exponential smoothing and grey system method to establish the mathematical models,which are applied to forecast the deformation of the ground surface settlement of buildings,based on the observation settlement data of Beijing Oriental steam pipe surrounding buildings in the process of tunnel excavation.After analyzing and comparing the forecast results,we know that double exponential smoothing method has a higher forecasting precision,it is a better method whose prediction effect of the tunnel surrounding buildings of surface subsidence is better,accord with the actual deformation better,which provide a method for reference on preventing the accidents and avoiding the economic loss and casualties.