基于Rank Logit模型对城际交通分担率的计算方法研究

Intercity Transport Mode Spilt Calculation Method Based on Rank Logit Model

城际交通对城市经济发展有显著作用,同样也是交通规划领域一个重要课题.随着高铁的快速发展,城际交通分担率也随之有相应变化.计算分担率的方法很多,其中Rank Logit模型能够充分利用SP调查中乘客对交通工具选择的排序数据,可以获得比其他非集计模型更高精度的特点.本文采集891份有效SP数据并建立Rank Logit模型,对广州—武汉的城际交通分担率展开研究以验证该模型的优点.模型结果从评价指标、参数实际意义和乘客时间价值等方面对比Rank Logit模型和Multinomial Logit模型,证明RL模型拥有更高的模型精度和可靠性.在此基础上本文进一步对武广通道上政策性调整进行了6组敏感性分析,为政府进行交通规划、交通运输政策的制订及修改等提供决策依据,也为铁道部、航空公司等运营部门制定策略提供了理论参考.

Intercity transportation plays an important role in urban economic growth,which is also an important research field of transportation planning.With the rapid development of high-speed railway,intercity transportation mode split is correspondingly changing in China.The Rank Logit model is one of the methods to measure the mode spilt in transportation research.The method can make full use of ranking data from SP survey to improve the model accuracy.The paper investigates the Guangzhou-Wuhan corridor and collects 891 SP survey data from the corridor to formulate a Rank Logit model.The analysis of the model indicates that the RL model has higher accuracy and more reliability from three perspectives as evaluation index,parameter rationality and value of passenger time.Finally,the paper carries out political sensitive analysis with six group examinations.The proposed method can be used to assit traffic planning and policy-making or provide reference for implementing and adjusting operation strategy.