2011—2015年我国民办高校发展规模预测

Prediction on the Development Scale of Private Colleges in China from 2011 to 2015

选用线性趋势法、二项式趋势线法、幂乘趋势线法、指数趋势线法，使用2004-2008年我国民办高校的基本数据，对2011到2015年的在校生规模分别进行了预测。然后采用组合预测法对在校生规模进行了预测，到2015年我国民办高校在校生规模大约477万。分析了经济发展水平、宏观政策、高等教育规模和适龄人口对民办高等教育规模的影响。

Based on the basic data about domestic private colleges between the year 2004 and 2008, the paper adopts the methods of linear tendency, binomial tendency linear, exponentiation tendency linear and index tendency to predict the scales of students at colleges from 2011 to 2015. The paper then uses the combined forecast method to predict the existing number of college students at school and estimates that the number is about 4,770,000. It analyses the economic development level, macro-policy and higher education scale and the effect of school-aged population on the scale of private higher education.