财政支农、税收、惯性效应与地区农业现代化发展

Financial Support for Agriculture,Taxation,Inertia Effect and the Development of Agricultural Modernization

运用静态面板和动态面板模型对中国各地区农业现代化发展的综合影响因素进行了实证分析,结果表明:财政支农的力度和农村可分配净收入中国家税金比例的大小是各地区农业现代化发展的重要影响因素。在其他条件不变的情况下,随着一个地区财政支出中用于农业投入公共资金的提高,该地区的农业现代化水平会有一定程度的提升;而一个地区农村可分配净收入中国家税金所占比重越高,其农业现代化水平越低,这一因素对农业现代化的快速发展形成了桎梏。而对于一个地区来说,其前一期农业机械化水平会产生惯性效应,前一期物质资本的积累能够为当期生产条件的改善提供一定基础,使农业现代化水平得到进一步改善。

This paper employs static panel model and dynamic panel model to empirically analyze the integrated factors that influence the development of agricultural modernization in various regions of China.The results show that： the intensity of the financial support for agriculture and the proportion of the national tax to the distributable net income in rural areas are important influencing factors for the development of regional agricultural modernization.Other circumstances remaining unchanged,in a region＇s fiscal expenditure,as the public finance invested in agriculture increases,the level of the region＇s agricultural modernization will improve to some extent.The higher the proportion of the national tax to a regions＇ rural net distributable income,the lower of its agricultural modernization level.This factor,however,has become a shackle to the rapid development of the region＇s agricultural modernization.An area＇s agricultural mechanic level in its previous stage will generate inertia effects;its previous accumulation of material capital can provide some foundation for the enhancement of its current production conditions,thus further improving the agricultural modernization level.