经济增长与环境污染关系的研究——基于环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证分析

A Study on the Relationship between Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution——An Empirical Analysis Based on Environmental Kuznets Curve

利用2000～2010年的数据对环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)进行实证分析,在环境指标上使用了综合环境污染指数作为评价指标,对工业废气、工业废水、工业固体废弃物进行综合评价,并算出了中国各省(自治区、直辖市)"拐点"的到来时间,结果发现倒"U"型的EKC确实存在,并且很多省(自治区、直辖市)拐点的到来时间是在2020年之后。在考虑进"环境承载能力阈值"之后对EKC进行修正,提出可能在拐点到来前触及"环境承载能力阈值"而引发生态灾难的观点。应用效应分解的方法分析EKC出现的内在机理,并根据分析结果提出使EKC拐点提前到来同时使EKC变得扁平的政策建议。

An empirical analysis is made on environmental Kuznets curve（EKC） by using data from 2000 to 2010.Comprehensive environmental pollution index is used to evaluate industrial waste gas,waste water and solid wastes,and the arrival times of the ＂turning points＂ of different provinces are calculated.The authors find that an inverted ＂U＂ shape EKC does exist,and most of the times are after 2020.By taking ＂environmental carrying capacity threshold＂ into account,the authors make a modification on EKC,and propose that ecological disaster might be triggered by hitting ＂environmental carrying capacity threshold＂ before the arrival of the turning points.The paper analyzes the internal mechanism of EKC by using effect decomposition method,and based on the results,policy suggestions are made on bring EKC turning point forward while making the curve be more flat.