Gumbel分布的基本风压计算与分析

Calculation and Analysis of Basic Wind Pressure Value Based on Gumbel Distribution

统计了中国159个代表性城市在1951—2008年的历年最大风速值,采用Gumbel分布进行统计分析并对其参数进行估算。用矩法和耿贝尔法分别计算出重现期为10、50、100a的基本风压值,并采用柯尔莫哥洛夫检验法进行检验,最后与规范取值进行对比分析。结果表明,当采用Gumbel分布对中国各地区的最大风速年极值进行统计时,耿贝尔法比矩法拟合效果好;重现期为10、50、100a的基本风压值对比分析表明,《建筑结构荷载规范》(GB 50009)的基本风压值与采用近58a的历年最大风速值计算的基本分压值相比存在较大差异,表明规范计算的采样数据少,取值已经不能真实反映中国的基本风压情况,建议进行相应修订。

In order to find out the current basic wind pressure in China,the parameters were estimated based on Gumbel distribution by statistically analyzing the annual maximum values of wind speed of 159 typical cities in China between 1951 and 2008.The basic wind pressure values for 10-year,50-year and 100-year return periods were calculated based on moment method and Gumbel method,respectively.The distribution function was tested by the Kolmogorov criterion.Finally,the calculation results were compared with those in current design codes and the results of the correlative literature.The results show that basic wind pressure values worked out by Gumbel method are better than those by moment method in most cases when the statistic of the annual maximum values of wind speed is conducted and analyzed by Gumbel distribution.There are significant differences between the basic wind pressure values for 10-year,50-year and 100-year return periods in Loading Code for Design of Building Structures and the results calculated with the annual maximum values of wind speed in recent decades,which shows that the sample data in Loading Code for Design of Building Structures are relatively insufficient and cannot reflect the present true condition in China.Therefore,basic wind pressure value should be revised accordingly.