舰炮制导炮弹技术风险评估

Research on Technical Risk Evaluation of Naval Gun Guided Projectile

针对技术风险评价中信息的模糊性和不确定性,提出了舰炮制导炮弹技术风险的灰色聚类评价方法。首先将舰炮制导炮弹研制方案的关键技术进行分解,确定综合评价指标,得到各指标的属性值;然后按照综合评价要求划分灰类,建立白化权函数;最后结合权重采用灰色聚类综合评价方法获得各关键技术所属风险级别及研制方案的综合技术风险值。算例表明,灰色聚类评价方法可将技术风险评价中的模糊和不确定信息定量化处理,能够有效地对舰炮制导炮弹的技术风险进行评价。

Considering the fuzziness and uncertainty of the information in technical risk assessment,a grey clustering evaluation method is proposed to assess the technical risk of the naval gun guided projectile.Firstly,the key technologys of naval gun guided projectile development plan are decomposed, integrative evaluation indexes are determined and the attributive value of each index is got.Secondly,grey species is set off according to the need of integrative evaluation and whitenization weight function is set up. In the end,combining with weight,the risk level of each key technology and the integrative technical risk value of development plan are got by using grey cluster integrative evaluation method.It is illustrated that the grey clustering evaluation method can quantify the fuzzy and uncertain information in technical risk assessment,and can assess the technical risk for the naval gun guided projectile effectively.