概率影响图的防空导弹作战能力影响分析

The Research on the Influence Relationships of Combat Capabilities of Air-defense Missile System Based on Probability Influence Diagram

针对防空导弹系统各作战能力间影响关系难以量化评估的问题,提出利用概率影响图进行分析的方法。在分析防空导弹作战流程、确定各作战活动影响关系的前提下,该方法首先由作战活动影响关系估计各作战能力结点的边缘概率和条件概率;其次利用目标定向法建立防空导弹作战能力概率影响图;最后对概率影响图进行一致性变换,定量评估各作战能力间的影响关系,导找重要能力指标,并动态分析影响关系的概率变化。以战术级爱国者防空导弹系统PAC-3为例借助该方法进行分析。结果证明,利用概率影响图分析防空导弹作战能力影响关系是可行和有效的。

Aiming to the problem of being hard to evaluate quantitatively about the influence relationships of each combat capability of Air-Defense Missile System,the paper presents a method which analyzes the problem based on probability influence diagram.As the precondition,the Air-Defense Missile combat flow should be analyzed and the influence relationships of each combat activity should be ascertained.First of all,the paper estimates the edged and conditioned probabilities of each combat capability based on the influence relationships of combat activities.Secondly,it builds the probability influence diagram of Air-Defense Missile System based on target oriented method.In the end,it estimates the influence relationships of each combat capability quantitatively based on the consistency transform, which gets the key capability index and analyzes probability changing degree of influence relationships dynamically.We analyze PAC-3 Tactics Air-defense Missile System as a example,the result shows that the method of probability influence diagram is feasible and valid for the research on the influence relationships of combat capabilities of Air-Defense Missile System.