外部经济环境与中国出口关系的实证研究——基于面板数据的协整与误差修正模型的检验

An Empirical Study on the Relationship of Foreign Country's Growth and China's Export——Based on the Co-integration and ECM Analysis of Panel Data

我国逐步融入到了经济全球化的进程,尤其是2001年加入世界贸易组织之后,由于我国享受其他世贸组织成员开放或扩大货物、服务市场准入的利益,我国出口发展的步伐更是进一步加快。我国出口增长非常迅速,但我国的出口增长并不稳定。外部经济环境的变化会影响外部需求,外部需求的变化进而会影响我国出口贸易的发展。2008年美国爆发的金融危机导致全球经济萧条,恶化的外部经济环境对我国的出口产生了明显的冲击。本文采用1996-2007年的面板数据对外国经济发展与中国出口的关系进行了协整与误差修正模型的检验。结果表明,无论是在长期还是在短期,中国出口增长都能明显地改善外部经济环境,外部经济环境的改善也能明显地促进我国出口的增长,因此,外部经济环境的变化会影响我国出口稳定增长。

China integrates into the globalization after 2001.China＇s exports increase more rapidly,because China can get more advantages from the other partners.Although our exports increase rapidly,but the growth is not stable.The external economy environment will change the foreign demand for china＇s goods,and then has effect on china＇s export.The financial crisis caused the depression of global economy,and worse economy environment has an adverse effect on China＇s export.This paper adopts the 1996-2007 years of panel data to foreign economic development and China＇s export of the relationship of co-integration theory and error correction model test.The results show that,whether in long-term or in the short term,China＇s export growth can obviously improve the external economic environment,the improvement of the external economic environment also can obviously promote our country＇s export growth,therefore,external economic environment changes will affect our export stable growth.