通胀预期管理下中央银行沟通的有效性研究——基于中国2003～2010年数据的实证分析

Research on the Effectiveness of Central Bank Communication under Inflation Expectation Management——The empirical research in the Years of 2003-2010

有效管理通货膨胀预期已成为中央银行货币政策调控的重要任务之一。近几年,世界上很多国家通过实施中央银行沟通引导市场预期,实现有效的货币政策调控。本文通过考察通货膨胀预期和中央银行沟通及其他经济变量之间的相关关系,分析中央银行沟通能否有效引导市场通胀预期。结果显示,由于缺乏系统性,中央银行沟通对市场预期的引导作用仍不如其他经济变量,但国内中央银行沟通对市场通胀预期的影响是显著的。其中,相对书面沟通,口头沟通对通胀预期的影响更为显著。在目前较强的通胀预期背景下,系统实施中央银行沟通将对未来通胀预期的管理起到积极作用。

Effective management of inflation expectations has become an important task of regulation in the central bank＇s monetary policy. Many central banks in the world raise their monetary policy by central bank communication, in the way of guiding market expectation. This paper analyzed the relationship among the inflation expectation and other economic variables to achieve the effective of central bank communication. The result shows that it is not more effective than other economic variables while lacking systematic ways. But the central bank communication actually influent the inflation expectation. The oral communication is more effective than written communication. In the situation of inflation expectation, the systematic operation of central bank communication can play a positive role in the inflation expectation management.