我国房产税试点的绩效评价与政策优化研究

Performance Evaluation and Policy Optimization on Real Estate Tax in China

上海、重庆两市试点开征房产税以来,长期内房产税能否起稳定房价作用已成为颇具争议的话题。本文将迪帕斯奎尔-惠顿四象限模型嵌入到动态蛛网模型,评估了房产税试点对房地产市场的影响。仿真结果表明,房产税试点虽然一定程度上起到了稳定房价作用,但不能从根本上扭转房价的正向发散趋势,原因是过低的税率加之住宅需求曲线的正斜率导致房价收敛的周期延长。本文研究的政策含义是,开放条件下城市化进程给房地产调控增加了诸多的不确定因素,政府应当因地制宜地运用高强度的税收政策调控房地产市场。

The pilot programs of property tax in Shanghai and Chongqing have been going on for over half year, to what extent that the property tax stabilizes the real estate market in China is a controversial issue. After compositing DiPasquale-Wheaton 4-quadrant diagram model into cobweb model, this paper illustrates the impact of the experimental property tax upon the market. The empirical and simulation outcomes show that the property tax is in some degree to stabilize Chinese real estate market. However, the trial property tax fails to change the positive divergence of housing price. Moreover, the improvement of the urbanization level increases the uncertainty of market regulation, so the policymakers should take regional conditions into account to implement the property tax to regulate the real estate market.