地震形成堰塞湖潜在影响范围快速评估

Quick evaluation of potential influential area of dammed lake formed by earthquake

以汶川地震诱发的唐家山堰塞湖为研究区域,以下游各水文站点的实测水文历史数据为基础,采用模拟退火智能算法训练计算了该河段的马斯京根演算方程系数,并在给定初始条件下,快速预报了下游各个重要地区的流量变化过程。结合断面的水位流量关系得到水位变化过程。最后,使用空间信息技术得到了下游潜在淹没范围。结果表明:在溃决水位为690 m的条件下,洪水将全部淹没下游北川县城。

Tangjiashan dammed lake induced by Wenchuan Earthquake is taken as research region, and on the basis of measured historical hydrological data of the hydrological stations in the downstream of Tangjiashan, the parameters of Maskingum e- quation for this river reach are calculated by simulated annealing algorithm. Under the given initial conditions, the variation process of the important areas in the downstream is forecasted quickly and the variation process of water level is obtained by level - discharge relation at the sections. The potential flooded area in the downstream area is achieved through spatial information technology. The results show that the whole Beichuan County would be flooded if the dammed lake outbursts at water level of 690m