区域贸易安排的“双边服务贸易效应”经验研究——基于扩展引力模型的2000-2009年面板数据分析

Empirical Research on the Effects of Regional Trading Arrangements on Bilateral Service Trade:Panel Data Analysis from 2000 to 2009 Based on Extended Gravity Model

文章基于2000-2009年双边服务贸易面板数据,并运用扩展的引力模型,对区域贸易安排的"服务贸易效应"展开了经验研究。研究发现:(1)整体上看,"区域贸易安排"对双边服务贸易产生了显著的促进作用,但"区域货物贸易安排"对服务贸易的影响缺乏统计显著性。(2)"区域服务贸易安排"对双边服务贸易流量产生了显著的正向影响。"南北型"区域服务贸易安排的"服务贸易效应"超过了"南南型"和"北北型",而且非对称性的"南北型"区域服务贸易安排对双边服务贸易的影响最显著,将双边服务出口流量提升了73.71%-76.81%。(3)"区域服务贸易安排"对服务贸易的影响大致需2年时间逐渐释放,表明区域服务贸易安排的"渐入期"要小于区域货物贸易安排(约10年)。

This paper employs an extended gravity model to make an empirical study on the effects of regional trading arrangements on service trade based on the panel data of bilateral service trade from 2000 to 2009.It arrives at the following conclusions： firstly,as a whole,regional trading arrangements plays a significant role in promoting bilateral service trade,but the effect of regional goods trading arrangements on service trade lacks statistical significance;secondly,regional service trading arrangements have significantly positive effects on bilateral service trade flow;the effects of north-south regional service trading arrangements on service trade are larger than the effects of south-south and north-north regional service trading arrangements on service trade,and asymmetric north-south regional service trading arrangements which lead to an increase of 73.71%-76.81% in bilateral service export flow have the most significant effects on bilateral service trade;thirdly,it generally takes two years to gradually release the effects of regional service trading arrangements on service trade,showing that the phasing-in period of regional service trading arrangements is shorter than the one of regional goods trade arrangements（about ten years）.