公共科技政策对创新产出的影响——基于印度的模型构建与实证分析

The Effects of Public S&T Policies on Innovation Outputs:A System Dynamics Model and Simulation Study Based on Indian Experience

以印度为研究对象,基于国家创新体系分析框架构建了公共科技政策影响创新产出的系统动力学模型,利用印度1991—2008年数据实证分析了不同科技政策对创新产出的影响效果。研究结果表明,印度科技政策主要通过作用于中央政府研究机构、邦政府研究机构、企业和大学对创新产出产生影响,其中,税收激励政策、中央政府科技支出、邦政府教育支出以及研发人员比例与结构调整对创新产出具有显著的促进作用,而金融支持政策、邦政府科技支出和中央教育支出对创新产出的促进作用较小。在此基础上,指出了对于我国建设创新型国家制定与实施公共科技政策的启示。

This paper establishes a system dynamics model on the effects of pubic ST policies on innovation outputs in the framework of national innovation system based on Indian experience,and makes the simulation analysis of the effects of different ST policies on innovation of India between 1991 and 2008.We find that public ST policies in India mainly influence innovation by means of the RD institutions belong to central sectors,state sectors,industry sectors and higher education sectors.The simulation results show that RD tax incentives policy,central ST investment,state education expenditure,the ratio and structure of RD personnel have significant positive effects on innovation outputs of India,but financial support policies,state ST investment and central education expenditure have little effects on innovation outputs of India.Then,we give some suggestions about the public ST polices for China.