基于VAR模型的技术进步对能源强度的脉冲响应分析——以山西省为例

The Impulse Response Analysis of Technical Progress on Energy Intensity Based on VAR Model——Taking Shanxi Province as an Example

山西省作为全国的能源生产和消费大省,单位国内生产总值能耗远高于全国平均水平,生态环境脆弱,"十二五"期间完成单位国内生产总值能耗降低16%的目标任务艰巨。本文首先从直接作用和间接作用两方面分析了技术进步对能源强度的作用机理,然后采用能源加工转换效率指标来表征技术进步水平,利用山西省1980～2009年相关数据,建立了能源强度与技术进步的VAR模型,进而运用脉冲响应分析研究了山西省能源强度对能源加工转换效率冲击的动态响应,并进行了方差分析。研究结果显示:山西省能源加工转换效率的提高对能源强度的负向影响将在滞后30多年中都存在,滞后效应较长。最后从4个方面提出了政策建议。

As a typical province of energy production and consumption,Shanxi has a long way to go to reach its 12th Five-Year Plan＇s goal of energy conservation,which is that the unit GDP energy consumption should be decreased by 16%,because of its relatively higher energy consumption per unit of GDP and fragile ecological environment.The paper first analyses the action mechanism of technical progress on energy intensity from the direct and indirect aspects.Then it uses the 1980～2009 data,obtained from 1980～2009 Shanxi Statistical Yearbooks and Shanxi Statistics Bureau,to work out the energy intensity,and uses the efficiency of energy conversion to represent technology progress,so the VAR model of these two variables is established.Third it uses impulse response analysis to study the energy intensity＇s dynamic response to the impulse of energy conversion efficiency,and also carries out the variance decomposition,and the result is the negative impact of energy conversion efficiency on energy efficiency will exist more than 30 years,and this delayed effect is rather long.Finally the paper proposes four countermeasures.