定陶县近40年气候变化特征与成因探析

THE CLIMATE CHANGE CHARACTERISTICS AND CAUSE ANALYSIS IN NEARLY 40 YEARS AT DINGTAO

本文选用定陶气象站1971～2010年地面观测资料,对气温、降水、日照等气候要素变化特征及成因进行分析、探究。结果表明:(1)80年代为低温期,90年代为升温期,2001～2010年为高温期;年平均气温以0.232℃/10a的倾向率波动上升;气温日较差有变小的趋势;年平均最低与冬季气温的上升对气候变暖贡献显著;冷空气活动对气温上升起到减缓或助长的作用。(2)1981～1990年为少雨年代,2001～2010年为多雨年代;年降水量的倾向率为13.454 mm/10a,未来有振荡性增多的趋势;旱涝灾情有阶段性,1993～2005年明显加重;厄尔尼诺(El Nino)事件与当地异常降水相关性较好。(3)年日照时数随年代减少,倾向率为-135.21 h/10a;夏秋两季日照时数的气候倾向决定着年日照时数的总体趋势;降水量与云量对日照时数减少起到一定的促进或制约的作用,不决定其总体趋势。

The change causes of climate elements,such as air temperature,precipitation,sunlight and so on were analyzed from 1971 to 2010at Dingtao.The results showed that：（1） air temperature was lower in 1980s,rising fast in 1990s,and higher in 2000s;The annual air temperature rose at a rate of 0.232℃/10a,the daily air temperature variation decreased,the rise of mean annual lowest air temperature and air temperature in winter contributed significantly to warming climate,and cold air activities also produced significant influence on climate warming;（2）The precipitation in 1980s was lower and the precipitation increased from 2001 to 2010;the precipitation rate increasingly was 13.454mm/10a,an increasing trend of precipitation can be seen.The distribution of flood and drought became heavier from 1993 to 2005,and the anomalies of local precipitation correlated to the El Nino Southern Oscillation（ENSO） events;（3） The annual sunlight duration decreased at 135.21h/10a and more significantly in summer and autumn,which was influenced by precipitation and cloudage in some degree,but not determining the variation trend of the sunlight duration.