武夷山市旅游气候舒适度与客流量变化相关性分析

Correlation Analysis Between Tourism Climate Comfort Degree and Variation of Tourist Amount in Wuyishan City

以近30年气候统计资料为依据,采用生理气候指标温湿指数THI和风效指数K对武夷山市旅游气候舒适度进行分析评价;结合近4年客流量的年内变化,计算客流量月指数并划分了旅游活动的淡旺季;最后采用OLS方法建立客流量月指数与气候舒适度指数的相关性模拟方程.结果表明:气候舒适度对武夷山市旅游有较大影响,入境旅游月指数气候弹性系数为0.580%;国内旅游还受到众多社会经济因素(节假日等)的影响,其月指数气候弹性系数为1.246%;景区的一些促销活动对该弹性系数会产生一定影响,从而减少了气候舒适度对武夷山客流量变化的影响.

Based on climate statistical data in recent 30 years,the paper analyses and evaluates climate comfort degree in Wuyishan city with the method of THI and wind effect index（K）;then the paper calculates monthly index of tourist amount and presentes tour peak season and tour off-season by using the data of annual tourist amount in four years;lastly,the paper establishes the correlation equation of monthly index of tourist amount and climate comfort degree index.The results show：climate comfort degree has much impact on Wuyishan tourism and inbound tourism monthly index coefficient is 0.580%;besides the factor of climate comfort degree,domestic tourism is affected by many factors like vacation,and its monthly index coefficient is 1.246%;mixed sales promotion in sightseeing district will affect coefficient and lead to reduce the effect which is put on Wuyishan tourist amount by climate comfort degree.