中国成品油零售市场系统动力学建模及其应用——以北京市为例

System Dynamics Simulation and Application on Petroleum Products Retail of China —Based on a Case Study of Beijing

随着我国成品油消费的快速增长,局部供应短缺事件时有发生,严重影响当地的经济发展。在系统分析成品油供应体系的基础上,构建了成品油零售系统动力学仿真模型,模拟了北京市成品油供应系统上游出现供应短缺、下游消费者出现抢购等突发事件情景下,加油站库存的变化及采取相关应急措施后的实施效果。研究结果表明:无论是加油站采取限购措施,还是政府采取限行政策,都不同程度地缓解上游供应短缺的影响,对保障成品油的持续供应和市场的稳定,发挥了重要作用。如果同时采取两种措施,会使加油站库存在政策实施时不再出现零库存情况,而且缺油现象明显减弱,对缓解"油荒"效果非常明显。

Petroleum products retail is the downstream of the supply chain, affected by various factors so that severe fluctuations could be caused. As a result, people＇s normal life, economic development and social stability could fluctuate heavily. The simulation model of petroleum products retail of Beijing is made by system dynamics. The model can simulate the instability causing by the shortages of upstream supply and panic buying of customer. In response to ＂oil shortage＂, some difference policies are implemented to hold stability of petroleum products retail supply chain. Through the simulation analysis, the gas station and consumers should implement appropriate policies at the same time, in order to achieve more efficiency in responding to and solution of the ＂oil shortage＂.