消费信贷与经济增长:北京和全国的比较分析

The Effect of Consumer Credit on Economic Growth:a Comparative Analysis based on Beijing and National Data

为检验消费信贷对经济增长的带动作用,分别采用2007年以来的季度数据和1998—2009年的年度数据进行检验,并且将检验结果进行了对比分析。检验结果显示,消费信贷对经济增长的带动作用在近年来增强了,但中长期消费信贷对经济增长的作用更加显著,特别是北京市中长期消费信贷拉动经济增长的效果显著超过了短期消费信贷。这种不对称性直接导致了消费信贷对消费的促进作用十分有限。如果希望通过发展消费信贷转变我国低投资、高消费的不平衡的经济结构,就必须改变消费信贷的发展模式。

This article is aimed to explore the effect of consumer credit on economic growth. The empirical results are derived using Beijing and national quarterly data since 2007 and annual data during 1998 and 2009 respectively,with which comparative analysis is carried out. It is shown that consumer credit imposes stronger effect on economic growth in recent years. However,especially in Beijing case, there exists remarkable difference between the effect of short-term and long-term consumer credit. Based on the above results, this article discusses the mechanism through which consumer credit drives economic growth. The article concludes by putting forward policy suggestions on the development of consumer credit market in the future.