国际货币竞争视角下的人民币国际化博弈分析

Game Analysis on RMB Internationalization from the Perspective of International Currency Competition

人民币国际化即人民币参与国际货币竞争的过程。货币发行国综合实力、货币自身特性、地缘政治、货币规模效应等是影响国际货币竞争格局的重要因素。对美元、欧元、英镑、日元、人民币等货币发挥国际货币各项职能衡量指标进行分析,可以看出,美元仍在国际货币竞争格局中占据主导地位,欧元、英镑对其垄断地位进行了有效的挑战,人民币在竞争中崭露头角并已小有斩获。基于货币替代的人民币与美元博弈分析结果显示,采取补偿货币被替代国铸币税损失等措施,能够有效增强人民币国际竞争力。

RMB internationalization is the same process as it competes in the world currency system. These factors as the issuing country＇s overall competitiveness, the features of the currency, regional policy and scale effects, will influence the final market structure. By studying the function index of dollar, euro, pound, yen and RMB, a conclusion can be reached that dollar is still in the leading position, though challenged by its rivals, and RMB has achieved some progress in the competition. From the perspective of substitution, to win the game between RMB and dollar, the compensation that equals the seigniorage revenue will be a smooth way out, and this also enhances RMB＇s competitiveness.