中国农村劳动力流动多因素动态关系分析——基于1983—2009年数据的实证研究

Dynamic relationship among multiple factors in rural labor migration:Based on empirical analysis of the data from 1983 to 2009

基于中国1983—2009年的数据,利用协整和向量误差修正模型,系统地分析了市场化体制改革背景下农村劳动力流动推力、拉力因素的变化及其对劳动力流动的冲击。结果表明,市场化改革、城乡收入差距、农村劳动力负担状况与农村劳动力流动之间存在长期均衡关系;从短期来看,农村劳动力流动自身冲击的波动幅度最大,城乡收入差距的冲击影响存在时滞,市场化改革的冲击持续为正,农村劳动力负担状况的冲击快但波动幅度较小。这说明在以户籍制度为核心的劳动力流动制度性障碍未深入改革之前,以市场机制主导的非国有部门和非正规部门是农村劳动力迁移的蓄水池,发展和壮大此类部门,鼓励其进入部分垄断行业等市场化制度安排是促进农村劳动力流动的重要手段;同时,政府应从统筹城乡的角度,提高农业补贴和加大农村耐用消费品的补贴力度。

On the background of marketization reform,this paper discusses the impact of pulling and thrusting factors of rural labor migration by using Co integration vector error correction models based on the data from 1983 to 2009 in China.The empirical study results show that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship among market-oriented reforms,the income gap between urban and rural,rural labor burden and the ratio of rural labor migration.In short term,rural labor force＇s own innovation fluctuations is the greatest,the impact from income gap between urban and rural areas is delayed,market-oriented reform impact on rural labor migration is continually positive,the impact from the burden on rural labor force status responses timely and slightly.Hence,a conclusion can be drawn that the non-state-owned sector or the informal sector which is dominant by market mechanism is the reservoir of rural labor migration until the labor mobility system barrier is thorough removed.As a result,the market institutional arrangements such as developing the non-state-owned sectors and encouraging their entry into some monopoly industries is an important means to promote rural labor migration;the government should increase agricultural subsidies and the rural durable consumer goods subsidies in the point of view of urban and rural.