从大坝设计和风险分析看大坝安全

From the dam design and risk analysis to evaluate the safety of dams

经过一百年大坝实践 ,据统计世界大坝溃坝率已从 2 0世纪初的 4%～ 10 %降至世纪未的约 0 .2 % (或小于 ) ,而从坝的可靠度设计理论可控制其失效概率在 0 .0 1%以下 ,可见两者的差距很大 ,说明目前大坝的实际安全度还应设法提高。在完善大坝设计中 ,还要注意对大坝可能出现的风险因素进行深入论证 。

From the statistics of 100 year's dam practices,the probability of the dam failure dereasing gradually from 4%~10% at the begining to 0 2% at the end of this century.From the reliability design of the dam,the rate of the failure may be controlled below 1.This rate is far below the above value 0 2% This will be clearly noted that for general view the actual safey of today's dam construction still provides a certain extends for further raising.We should pay great attentions and efforts to the dam design and specially to the risk factors to be faceded The risk administration including the dam monitoring should be considered also