可持续水资源管理的风险分析研究

Study on risk analysis of sustainable management of water resources

可持续水资源管理强调未来变化、社会福利、水文循环、生态系统保护这样完整性的水管理 ,因此它面对比现行水资源管理更大的复杂性及更多的不确定因素的影响 .讨论了可持续水资源管理的风险分析和决策的特点 ,介绍了当前主要的风险计算方法和准则 。

Compared with the traditional water resources management, the sustainable management of water resources, which emphasizes the integrated management considering changes in future,social welfare, hydrological cycle and ecological system, is much more complicated and influenced by more uncertainty sources. In this paper, the characteristics of risk analysis for the sustainable management are discussed. The main tools and criteria for risk analysis are introduced. Based on the reliability analysis, a case study about the risk analysis of water resources project is given.