基于多种外溢机制的国际贸易与我国技术进步关系分析

International Trade and Chinese Technological Increase Basing on Various Spillovers Mechanism

学术界对中国进出口技术外溢问题给出了多种解释,却少有文献关注到技术外溢时滞和成熟度差异对外溢结果的影响。本文在分析各种技术外溢作用机制的基础上,构造了全要素创新效率指标(TFI),与TFP进行对照来检验不同外溢机制的这两方面影响,并结合特定时期的进出口特征事实进行了讨论。本文的分析结果显示,进口贸易和出口贸易都带来了积极的技术溢出,但由于不同外溢机制的时滞不同,且在分析期存在明显的模型结构转型,应结合现实给出不同阶段和不同外溢机制的特定解释。从本文的分析结果也可以看到在验证多影响机制的实证分析中对照性研究设计的重要性。

The researches on spillovers of Chinese international trade offered various explanations.We think that any interpret can not neglect the differences of time lag and technical maturity of different spillover mechanisms,thus this paper construct the indicator of total production of innovation（TFI） comparing with TFP to reflect these differences.The results show that import,export and domestic RD investment have positive effects on Chinese technological increase.Yet the effects of time lag and structural change of both import and export in reality during the time span we analyzed,conclusions should be given carefully.The biggest inspiration of this paper is triangular investigation should better be designed and interpreted with caution when conducting quantitative analysis,especially when dealing with small sample and highly homogenized data.