国际碳贸易价格波动对可再生能源投资的影响机制——基于实物期权理论的分析

Evaluating Renewable Energy Investment Options with Uncertainty Under Volatile International Carbon Prices: a Real Options Approach

有效利用可再生能源是促进节能减排实现绿色循环经济的重要手段。目前,可再生能源技术成本仍高于传统能源技术,因而需要获得额外的经济激励以增加其投资。《京都议定书》所建立的国际碳贸易体系是支持发展中国家实现碳减排的重要机制,但该贸易体系发展前景不明确,这将深刻影响我国可再生能源投资。本文分析和揭示了国际碳贸易体系的不确定性对可再生能源投资决策的影响,在此基础上提出了分别存在于可再生能源项目前期规划阶段和项目建设阶段的增长期权和延迟期权;通过构建两阶段期权模型研究国际碳价格波动下企业延迟投资的灵活性,并量化确定可再生能源项目投资期权价值,采用Monte-Carlo仿真分析法进一步验证模型,推导得出国际碳价格波动对可再生能源项目投资的作用机制。

Effective utilization of renewable energy（RE） is an essential means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions for a more sustainable development.Due to higher costs RE calls for additional incentives to encourage the necessary investments.The targets set in Kyoto Protocol 1997 for emission reductions promote the development of RE in the developing countries.The uncertainty of international carbon trade is considered as a cause for a potential barrier to RE investment in China.In the paper,the general effects of uncertainty in and from international carbon trading policies that could alter RE investors’ expectations and decisions are argued,and the growth option and the option to defer in the two stages of RE project are discussed.A two-stage real options model accounting for the flexibility over the timing of investment is then proposed,in order to deduce the value of investment options,and furthermore verified by a Monte Carlo simulation.The results of quantifying the cost of uncertainty under volatile international carbon prices,through its effects on inducing greater optionality considerations in the RE investments are concluded in the paper.