摘要
Wind and solar energy are projected to be major sources of the world's power in the coming decades.In this study,we first introduce satellite observations for surface solar irradiance and wind,and then discuss using the data for prediction and assessment of energy distribution.Using the current NCEP global forecast model (GFS),the global mean and standard deviation of solar power at the surface for the 5-d forecast are about 212 and 124 W/m2,respectively.For a 24-h forecast of a 3-h mean,the relative error is about 30%,and for a prediction of the daily mean,it is about 15%.The relative error of wind power forecasts for a 24-h forecast of a 3-h mean and a daily mean is 70% and 35%,respectively.The reanalysis results based on satellite observations and numerical weather prediction model are also used to study the distribution of solar and wind energy and the variation of the distribution related to climate change.No significant trend in downward solar radiation is found at the surface in the reanalysis data sets.Surface wind power however exhibits a significant positive trend as the global temperature is warming up.A comparison of a decadal mean wind energy between two decades (from 1949 to 1958 vs.from 1999 to 2008) shows that most of Asia had experienced a decrease in surface wind energy.Therefore,decisions about renewable energy developments need to consider such climate change scenarios.
Wind and solar energy are projected to be major sources of the world's power in the coming decades.In this study,we first introduce satellite observations for surface solar irradiance and wind,and then discuss using the data for prediction and assessment of energy distribution.Using the current NCEP global forecast model (GFS),the global mean and standard deviation of solar power at the surface for the 5-d forecast are about 212 and 124 W/m2,respectively.For a 24-h forecast of a 3-h mean,the relative error is about 30%,and for a prediction of the daily mean,it is about 15%.The relative error of wind power forecasts for a 24-h forecast of a 3-h mean and a daily mean is 70% and 35%,respectively.The reanalysis results based on satellite observations and numerical weather prediction model are also used to study the distribution of solar and wind energy and the variation of the distribution related to climate change.No significant trend in downward solar radiation is found at the surface in the reanalysis data sets.Surface wind power however exhibits a significant positive trend as the global temperature is warming up.A comparison of a decadal mean wind energy between two decades (from 1949 to 1958 vs.from 1999 to 2008) shows that most of Asia had experienced a decrease in surface wind energy.Therefore,decisions about renewable energy developments need to consider such climate change scenarios.
基金
supported by National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2010CB951600)
NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research
