电力消费与经济发展关系国际实证分析——基于长期历史数据的考察

实证分析表明,不论以市场汇率法还是以购买力平价法表示,从长期视角审视,英国、美国、日本人均电力消费与人均GDP的长期历史趋势呈现出快速增长和慢速增长两个不同的阶段,韩国仍然处于快速增长的第一阶段,而且定量分析表明人均电力消费与人均GDP在这两个阶段都具有较高的线性拟合优度;英国、美国、日本电力强度的长期历史趋势呈现倒"V"形模式,韩国电力强度仍然处于倒"V"形的上升阶段;电力消费长期趋势的转变与这些国家经济结构的调整有着重要联系。

Using either market exchange rate method or purchasing power parity method,from the long-term perspective,the empirical analysis shows that,for United Kingdom,United States and Japan,the long-term historical trends between per capita electricity consumption and per capita GDP can be divided into two different stages,rapid growth stage and slow growth stage,for Korea,it is still in the rapid growth stage.Moreover,the quantitative analysis shows that per capita electricity consumption and per capita GDP have higher linear goodness of fit in both stages.The study also shows that,for United Kingdom,United State and Japan,the long-term historical trends of electricity intensity present the inverted V-shaped model,for Korea,it is still in the rising phase of inverted V pattern.The changes in long-term trends of electricity consumption have an important relation with economic restructuring in these countries.