基于系统动力学城市低碳交通发展模式研究——以郑州市为例

Research on Building Urban Low-carbon Transportation System Based on System Dynamics——Taking Zhengzhou as an Example

通过建立起城市低碳交通系统动力学模型,描述各因素之间复杂的相互影响关系。以郑州市为例对城市低碳交通模型进行仿真模拟,结果发现机动车保有量和城市人口的增加是城市交通碳排放增加的重要驱动因素。加强城市交通需求管理、改善城市交通结构、大力发展公共交通是实现城市低碳交通的重要措施。

This paper analyzes the complex dynamics relationship through building an urban low-carbon transport system.It takes Zhengzhou as a case to simulate the urban low-carbon system,and the result suggests rapid increase of motor vehicles and people are the important driver factors of urban carbon emissions.It is important to strengthen urban transport demand management and develop urban public transport in building urban low-carbon transport.