山东省能源要素产出弹性、替代弹性的实证研究——基于超越对数生产函数的岭回归估计

Empirical Study on Output Elasticity and Substitution Elasticity of Energy Factors in Shandong Province:Based on Ridge Regression of Translog Production Function

构建了一个包含煤炭、石油、天然气和电力4种能源投入要素及时间趋势变量的超越对数生产函数,实证检验了1979—2009年山东省各能源要素的产出弹性、替代弹性及技术进步差异。结果表明:自改革开放以来,山东省的能源要素投入系统存在中性技术进步,技术进步率呈逐年递增趋势;山东省各能源要素的产出弹性逐年提高,按其均值由高到低排序依次是电力、石油、煤炭和天然气;1979—2009年期间煤炭与石油、煤炭与电力、石油与电力以及天然气与电力的替代弹性均大于1,石油与天然气的替代弹性虽然小于1,但自2000年后逐渐增大;山东省各能源要素的技术进步差异较小,按能源要素的技术进步率由高到低排序依次是煤炭、石油、电力和天然气。

This paper constructs a Translog production function which contains coal,oil,natural gas and electricity as well as a time trend variable.By using this function,it empirically tests the output elasticity and substitution elasticity of four kinds of energy and their technical progress gaps.The results show as follows：there exists a neutral technical progress in energy field of Shandong,and this trend is increasing;the output elasticity of four kinds of energy increase year by year,and the result sorted by the mean value of output elasticity from high to low is electricity,coal,oil and natural gas;during 1979-2009,those of which the substitution elasticity is bigger than 1 are coaloil,coalelectricity,oilelectricity and natural gaselectricity;although the substitution elasticity of oil natural gas is lower than 1 is,it is increasing since 2000;the technical progress gap among energy factors is small,and the result sorted by the technical progress rate of energy factor from high to low is coal,oil,electricity and gas.