安徽省农户粮食生产潜力——基于909名农户的调研数据

Grain Production Potential of Farmer Household in Anhui Province:Based on Data of Investigation in 909 Farmers

利用对粮食主产省之一——安徽省的农户所做调研的数据,假设粮农将所有的闲置耕地全部用来满负荷生产粮食,且粮食单产达到本村庄近五年内的最高产量,测得安徽省户均有45%的增产潜力;若上述假设条件不变,进一步假设安徽省南部的三季生产区只生产两季,则粮食增产潜力变为25%;在上述假设的基础上,再考虑气候对粮食单产的负面影响,则该比例变为11%。安徽省农户的粮食生产潜力之所以较大,是因为粮食的比较效益下降、农业基础设施较差、综合服务组织缺失和粗放式管理存在缺陷。最后提出保护和实现安徽省粮食生产潜力的对策。

Through using the data from the farmer household investigation in Anhui province,this paper calculates the rate of grain growth potential is 45% on the assumption that farmers use all of idle grain land to produce grain and the level of grain unit yield of every farmer reaches the highest level of their own village in latest five years.Based on the above assumption,when changing triple-cropping to double-cropping which is general phenomenon in south region of Anhui,this rate is 25%;if considering the impact of climate on grain unit yield,this rate is 11%.The relative grain production rate is high because of the decreasing of grain production profit,poor agriculture infrastructure construction,the lack of comprehensive agriculture service organization and extensive administration.Finally,it proposes the countermeasures for protecting and realizing the grain production potential of Anhui.