我国产业结构与经济增长间动态关系的实证分析——基于状态空间模型

Emipircal Research on Dynamic Relationship between Industrial Structure and Economic Growth:Based on State Space Model

运用时变参数模型,从三次产业对经济增长的拉动作用的角度,对三次产业与经济增长之间的动态关系进行了实证研究。结果表明:虽然近几年第三产业产值及其占比的增长速度均很快,但第三产业对经济增长的拉动作用不明显,落后于第二产业。最后,结合我国产业结构的特点,提出提高消费性服务业产值比重、加快第三产业内部结构的升级等建议,强调在努力提高第三产业产值比重的同时,更应注重提高第三产业的效率,由此才能实现经济的长期稳定增长。

This paper uses a time varying parameter model to analyze empirically the dynamic relationship between industrial structure and economic growth.The result shows that,although the output and proportion of third industry have been growing rapidly in recent years,the efficiency of it is not obvious,which is behind second industry.According to the characteristics of China＇s economic structure,it puts forward some suggestions,such as raising the proportion of output value of consumer service sector,speeding up the upgrading of third industry structure.And it points out that,more attention should be paid to raising the efficiency of third industry when increasing the proportion of the third industry in order achieve the long-term stable economic growth.