中国外汇储备增长贡献因素的实证分析——基于贸易出口和FDI流入的分析

利用中国20世纪80年代初以来25年的实际利用外资额、出口贸易额和外汇储备这三个经济变量的年度数据,以实际利用外资额和出口贸易额作为解释变量,以外汇储备为被解释变量,建立对数计量回归模型,在对模型进行平滑化处理后利用协整理论和误差修正模型(ECM),对对数计量回归模型进行解读。结果表明,实际利用外资额反映的FDI流入和贸易出口与中国外汇储备增长之间存在协整关系,客观上对中国外汇储备增长有一定的正向推动作用。

Using China＇ s foreign capital of actual utilization,export volume and foreign exchange reserves of the annual data of the three economic variables from the beginning of the 1980s until now, take the foreign capital of actual utilization,export volume and foreign exchange reserves as explanatory variables, we measure the logarithmic regression model, after the smooth processing of the model and error correction model （ ECM）, interpret the logarithmic regression model. The results show that there is cointegration relation among them, the FDI inflaws reflected the foreign capital of actual utilization and exports and China＇ s foreign exchange reserves growth, objectively it takes a eertain positive role in promoting China＇ s foreign exchange reserves growth.