新疆绿洲城市综合规模与基础设施灰色关联时空分析

Study on Grey Relation Between Infrastructure and Oasis Urban Comprehensive Size of Xinjiang

通过构建新疆城市综合规模与基础设施评价指标体系,运用综合灰色关联分析方法,对新疆22个城市基础设施与综合规模进行灰色关联分析。研究发现:①1997—2007年新疆基础设施与城市综合规模平均灰色关联度大于0.59。有较强关联度城市分布在北疆和东疆,在时间分布上,灰色关联度缓慢上升,上升幅度小。②基础设施对城市综合规模灰色响应值差异较大,通讯设施和能源设施具有较强绝对灰色响应,交通设施和环境设施具有较强相对灰色响应。在空间分布上,22个城市的基础设施灰色响应最小值基本一致,稳定在0.5左右,但灰色响应最大值具有较大差异。在时间上,不同基础设施对城市综合规模灰色响应分别属于下降型、平稳型、上升型。③基础设施对综合城市规模的灰色影响明显。在绝对灰色影响中,对经济规模影响最大。在灰色影响中,对建成区规模影响最大。空间分布上,对经济规模有绝对灰色影响最大值城市占总数的45.5%,在相对灰色影响中,对第三产业影响最大的城市占总数的31.8%;基础设施对城市综合规模灰色影响以上升型为主。

This paper analyzed the Grey correlation between infrastructure and comprehensive of 22 cites in Xinjiang by Synthetic Grey relation method after we built the evaluation index systems of urban comprehensive size and infrastructure. The results showed： ①The grey correlation is more than 0.59 between infrastructure and urban size. The regularity of spatial distribution of the Grey correlation is loom and the new city has high Grey correlation only. The Grey correlations have increased gradually but less from 1997 to 2007. ②The responses of infrastructure to urban comprehensive size are strong, and different factors of infrastructure have different responses. Communication and energy infrastructures are stronger of absolute differences, and environment and transport infrastructure are stronger of the relatively response. The variation of infrastructure response of temporal is different. Those absolute responses reduced including main road passenger transport, The Sum of completed investment in fixed assets, number of colleges and Secondary Specialized School, and consumption electricity remains unchanged, and others increased. The variation of relative responses is non-negative except that highway passenger traffic volume declined, and the numbers of beds in Social Welfare Institute increased maximum. ③On absolute effect, the size of economic is most, and second one is population size and last on is land area. The built-up area is most on relative effect, second one is and the smallest one is the employed. On spatial distribution, the absolute effect on size economy＇s most cities are 45.5% of the total. On relative effect, the city that received most effect on tertiary industry is 31.8% of total. The absolute effect that impact on economy size and land size increase. The relative effect that impact on the factors of urban comprehensive size increase except that GDP unchanged.