转型期城市旅游业绩效系统耦合关联性测度及其前景预测——以泛长江三角洲地区为例

Measure of City Tourism Performance System Coupling Association and Forecast——A Case Study of the Pan-Yangtze River Delta

在剖析了旅游业绩效客观存在问题的基础上,构建了包括经济绩效、市场绩效、效率绩效、公平绩效在内的旅游业绩效系统评价体系,运用主成分分析法提炼出旅游业绩效系统的主成分因子,并引入灰色关联耦合模型,定量分析了主成分因子和指标因子各自的关联度与子系统耦合度,最后,针对子系统之间的耦合度进行了预测。结果表明:泛长三角城市旅游业绩效系统主成分因子表现出中度及以上的关联性,子系统耦合度呈现明显的空间分异,经济—市场系统和经济—公平系统的耦合度分别位于最高值和最低值状态,系统间的耦合发展普遍处于拮抗阶段和磨合阶段,并有向高阶段演化的趋势,针对2020年子系统耦合度预测表明了城市间绩效耦合度存在绝对数值的增大,相对差异缩小的态势。

Tourism performance is an important scale for measuring the degree of tourism development, playing an important role in promoting tourism strategic mainstay industry status. This paper analyzes the performance objective in tourism, on the basis of existing problems, constructing the tourism system performance evaluation system including economic performance, market performance, efficiency performance, fair performance, using the principal component analysis to point out the main component system of tourism performance factor, and combined with the regression method to calculate the performance of the system and its subsystems tourism scoring values.The coupling analysis shows that economic market system and economy- fair system located in the highest and lowest coupling state, the coupling between the systems development generally are in antagonist stage and integration phase, and a high stage to the evolution of the trend.